WS #10007

The dominant signal in this window is the IEA's latest oil market report, which slashes 2026 demand outlook by 700k bpd and flags a potential oil glut in 2027 as supply rebounds post-Iran war. This is corroborated by multiple IEA data points on Bluesky and a CNBC article. The report suggests that while the immediate supply shock is severe, the medium-term outlook is bearish for oil prices. Separately, a Ukrainian drone strike has halted Moscow's largest refinery, and TotalEnergies' Saudi refinery remains at 70% capacity after a drone hit, indicating ongoing supply-side disruptions. SpaceX continues its post-IPO rally, gaining 4% and surpassing Amazon in market cap, driven by investor enthusiasm for Elon Musk's long-term vision. ECB's Simkus signals at least one more rate hike, which is a hawkish tilt for European markets. The US-Iran deal narrative remains stable with no new concrete developments, though Polymarket trading on the topic persists. The Russian artist critical of Putin being shot dead in Poland is a geopolitical escalation that could increase NATO-Russia tensions.