WS #10010

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the oil glut narrative, now reinforced by multiple sources confirming the return of Iranian crude to global markets. A third Iran-linked tanker has crossed the US blockade toward Asia (Bloomberg, Alpaca), while Qatar is repositioning LNG tankers in anticipation of Strait of Hormuz reopening (Bluesky). The AP reports that Iran will reopen the Strait and sell oil freely under the US deal, and Julius Baer expects energy supply to return quickly, with oil already below $80. This corroborates the IEA's oversupply warning and Goldman's price forecast cut from the previous window. The narrative is ESCALATING: supply-side bearish thesis is gaining concrete evidence of physical barrels returning. Separately, UK inflation held steady at 2.8% in May (vs. 3% expected), per multiple sources (Bluesky, BBC), signaling a softer-than-feared impact on UK cost of living, which eases pressure on the Bank of England and supports gilts. On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit Russian oil infrastructure (Moscow refinery knocked out, per Reuters/Bluesky), maintaining supply disruption risk that partially counters the bearish oil thesis. The CarMax earnings beat (EPS $1.31 vs $0.94 est, revenue $8.01B vs $7.41B est) is a positive signal for the consumer discretionary sector. The US-Iran deal details are emerging in a 14-point memorandum (Bloomberg), but Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue despite Trump criticism (BBC, Guardian), creating uncertainty about the deal's implementation. Overall, the macro picture is dominated by the oil glut thesis, with UK inflation providing a dovish tailwind for bonds, while Ukraine's continued refinery strikes and Israel-Lebanon tensions provide partial counters.