WS #10013

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran deal narrative, now with multiple corroborating sources. G7 leaders have endorsed Trump's tentative Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire, according to a breaking report. Separately, Iranian tankers have exited the US blockade zone ahead of peace talks, carrying millions of barrels of crude. This development is a counter-signal to the prevailing oil supply crisis thesis, as it suggests a potential easing of tensions and resumption of oil flows. However, Trump has also warned that the deal could lead to military action if terms are unfavorable, adding uncertainty. The narrative is ESCALATING with new concrete steps toward a deal, but with hawkish caveats from the US side. In other signals, BMW stock slumped to a 5-year low after cutting 2026 guidance due to China slowdown and Iran war disruption, which is bearish for European auto sector and may spill over to US auto suppliers. DeepSeek was valued at over $50 billion after its first funding round, highlighting continued AI investment momentum. Micron's price target was raised to $1,500 at Deutsche Bank, bullish for memory chip demand. Lionsgate stock pulled back after Netflix denied acquisition interest. The Fed under Chair Warsh is expected to be hawkish, with the energy shock remaining topical for monetary policy.