WS #10025

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran deal, with new details emerging. A reported draft MOU outlines a ceasefire, $300B for Iran, $100B in frozen funds, oil waivers, and Hormuz traffic restoration, with nuclear issues deferred 60 days. However, document authenticity is disputed—Tasnim cites an Iranian source saying Bloomberg's version is inaccurate and the final MOU won't be public. Polymarket activity shows heavy betting on Iran-related outcomes (airspace closure, enrichment end, Hormuz normalization), indicating high market attention. The G7 summit continues, with Japan's PM Takaichi confirming close US-Japan coordination on the Indo-Pacific and a joint stockpiling of critical minerals. Italian PM Meloni stated the G7 reached an agreement with Trump on Ukraine but cautioned against relying on Trump. EU officials confirmed brief diplomatic contacts with Russia. On the macro front, ISM reported economic activity to expand through 2026, with manufacturing revenue expected to increase 8.4% and services revenue up 8.6%. The IEA's warning of a looming oil supply surplus in 2027 (supply +8M bpd vs demand +2M bpd) is a bearish counterweight to the oil price spike from the Iran deal. SpaceX shares fell for the first time since IPO, a notable MAG7-adjacent signal. Brokerage names are rotating into crypto-adjacent stocks (HOOD +10.2%, NBIS +7.5%, ARM +5.0%) while cloud mega-caps bleed (AMZN -3.0%, GOOGL -2.7%, MSFT -2.2%), suggesting a rotation trade. BitGo announced a $50M buyback, sending shares up 20%. The US-Iran deal narrative is ESCALATING with new draft details, but authenticity disputes add uncertainty. The G7 summit is STABLE with expected outcomes. The tech rotation is a new development worth monitoring.