WS #10030

The dominant signal in this window is the US-Iran deal narrative reaching a new phase, with Trump confirming an agreement has been reached and defending it at the G7 summit. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Bluesky posts, Polymarket activity) and represents an ESCALATION of the prior narrative from 'remote signing possibility' to 'agreement reached.' The deal is a counter-signal to the oil supply crisis thesis, as it could lead to Iranian oil returning to markets and easing Strait of Hormuz tensions. However, Hezbollah's rejection of pilot zones in US-brokered talks between Lebanon and Israel adds a countervailing geopolitical risk that could keep oil prices elevated. Separately, the IEA sees an oil surplus in 2027 after Hormuz reopening, suggesting the deal's impact on supply is already being priced in for the medium term. On the macro front, US pending home sales surged 3.8% MoM (est 0.9%), a strong beat that signals housing market resilience despite higher rates, which is bullish for homebuilders and consumer sentiment. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at today's meeting, with rising inflation eroding purchasing power. In corporate news, a massive dark pool order of 1.37M shares of QQQ ($999M) was detected, indicating institutional accumulation in tech. A $21.9M whale flow into AVGO long-term calls (Dec 2027) signals bullish conviction on Broadcom. AT&T shares are lower on CFO retirement. The Gilgo Beach serial killer sentencing is noise for markets. Overall, the US-Iran deal is the highest-significance development, with the pending home sales beat as a secondary positive macro signal.