WS #10046

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran deal narrative, with multiple sources confirming the release of the MOU text and Trump stating the deal will be signed within 48 hours. Iran's official news agency released the text, which includes commitments to resolve enriched material under IAEA supervision, a 60-day negotiation period, and a pledge not to produce nuclear weapons. This counters the prevailing oil supply crisis narrative by potentially restoring Strait of Hormuz traffic and easing sanctions, but the massive fiscal transfer ($300B reconstruction fund) raises fiscal concerns. Separately, the Fed's hawkish hold under new Chair Warsh is confirmed, with Treasury yields leaping and markets repricing rate expectations. The MAG7 narrative shows no new contradicting signals in this window. The Iran deal is the primary market-moving event, with second-order effects on oil (bearish), airlines (bullish), and defense (bearish). The Fed's hawkish tilt remains a headwind for growth stocks.