WS #10048

The dominant signal in this window is the release of the full text of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), corroborated by multiple sources including the Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera, and numerous social media posts. The 14-point agreement includes significant concessions: the US commits to lifting all sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and a $300B reconstruction plan, while Iran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump claims the deal averts a 'worldwide depression.' Separately, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50-3.75% in Warsh's first FOMC meeting, but the dot plot shows a hawkish tilt with 9 of 18 officials projecting at least one hike this year, and core inflation forecasts raised to 3.3%. The Fed's stance is a counter-signal to any dovish expectations. In stock-specific news, Micron received bullish analyst upgrades (Deutsche Bank PT to $1500, Citigroup to $1200), and Applied Materials also got a PT hike from Citigroup. AT&T fell after CFO retirement. The US-Iran deal is the primary macro narrative, with oil prices likely to decline on supply relief, while the Fed's hawkish hold caps risk appetite.