WS #10083

The dominant signal in this window is the formal signing of the US-Iran interim peace deal, confirmed by multiple sources including Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, and The Guardian. The 14-point memorandum extends the ceasefire by 60 days, includes full resumption of Hormuz maritime traffic with no charge for 60 days, lifting of US sanctions, and a $300bn reconstruction fund for Iran. However, lead Iranian negotiator Ghalibaf stated Hormuz will not return to prewar conditions and Iran will charge ships after the toll-free period, partially offsetting the bullish oil-supply recovery thesis. Separately, a second Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow's oil refinery in three days is confirmed by multiple Bluesky posts with video evidence, re-escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions and supporting oil prices. Goldman Sachs estimated Hormuz oil flows may recover to only 70% after the war, a medium-significance counter to full-recovery expectations. On the AI front, SK Telecom triggered Anthropic's export controls, not Amazon, adding regulatory risk for Anthropic and its partners. Nvidia supplier SK Hynix shipped HBM4E samples to major customers, bullish for NVDA. Trump claimed Apple agreed to work with Intel to design and build chips in America, a potential high-significance development for AAPL and INTC. The narrative arc on the US-Iran deal is STABLE (deal signed, details emerging), the Moscow drone attack is ESCALATING (second strike in days), and the AI regulatory/talent war is a new ESCALATING theme.