WS #10123

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran détente, which is now fully confirmed and escalating. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written message confirming the MOU with the US, stating he gave permission after Iranian officials accepted responsibility. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, BBC, Alpaca, Bluesky). JD Vance publicly criticized Israel for opposing the deal, telling Israel 'you can't kill your way out' of security problems. Iran announced plans to introduce maritime fees for the Strait of Hormuz after a 60-day negotiation period. Oil prices are sinking to $75 on the peace deal, with tankers reportedly transiting the Strait again. This is a significant de-escalation of a major geopolitical risk, directly impacting oil prices and related sectors. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is also escalating, with a record Ukrainian drone attack on a Moscow refinery causing damage to the Euro+ unit, and Zelenskyy warning Moscow will burn. Russia confirmed multiple explosions. The G7 announced new sanctions on Russian oil and gas. On the corporate side, Intel leads AI and chip stocks higher after Trump touted an Apple chip deal. FERC ordered grid operators to fast-track data center interconnection requests, a bullish signal for AI infrastructure. SpaceX is said to be eyeing a $20B bond sale following its landmark IPO. Apple warned of AI-driven memory chip cost spikes. Salesforce cut 1,000 roles. The AI trade is shifting from hardware to bond markets. The US Supreme Court eased restrictions on drug users owning firearms. Overall, the Iran deal is the most market-moving signal, with oil prices likely to continue declining, benefiting airlines and consumer stocks while hurting energy and oil services. The Ukraine escalation and G7 sanctions provide a counter-signal that could limit the downside in oil.