WS #10136

The dominant theme in this window is the confirmation and aftermath of the US-Iran peace deal, with multiple high-significance developments. The US has lifted its naval blockade of Iran, and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has publicly approved the deal despite expressing a different personal view. The deal includes a $300bn reconstruction fund for Iran, which has become a political flashpoint in Washington, with Trump denying direct US funding. The Bank of England held rates in a 7-2 vote, citing an easing oil outlook. Separately, Ukraine launched a significant drone strike on a Moscow refinery for the second time in three days, causing a large explosion. The UK announced a $960 million aid package for 150,000 drones for Ukraine. On the corporate front, Marvell surged 7% on news that Amazon plans to sell Trainium chips externally. SpaceX received a Baa1 rating from Moody's and a BBB+ IDR from Fitch with stable outlook ahead of its IPO. The S&P and Nasdaq closed sharply higher on the peace deal, with semiconductors rallying. Money market fund assets hit a record $7.92 trillion. The Iran deal narrative is DE-ESCALATING the geopolitical risk premium, which is positive for equities and negative for oil, while the Ukraine drone strike and UK aid package represent an ESCALATING conflict in that theater.