WS #10151

The dominant signal in this window is the continued unwinding of the Iran/Hormuz risk premium, with multiple sources reporting that the US-Iran interim peace deal has been signed, oil flows are resuming, and crude prices are easing. This is corroborated by Polymarket event listings, Bluesky posts citing the MoU, and CNBC commentary. The narrative is DE-ESCALATING: the Strait of Hormuz blockade is ending, 12.5 million barrels moved overnight, and oil prices are trading lower. However, a counter-signal has emerged: Iran has reportedly paused negotiations citing an Israeli strike in Lebanon, threatening implementation. Separately, Ukraine launched a large drone strike on a Moscow refinery, but this is a separate geopolitical risk that does not offset the Hormuz de-escalation. The semiconductor rally (INTC +10.6%, SMCI +10.4%, TSM +6.9%) on Trump-Apple-Intel chip manufacturing news is a high-significance MAG7 carve-out, contradicting any lingering macro bearishness. Overall, the market is risk-on on easing oil and AI optimism, but the Iran pause is a key risk to watch.