WS #10188

The dominant narrative remains the unraveling of the US-Iran framework deal, but this window brings several cross-source corroborated developments that shift the outlook. Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed the Friday Switzerland meeting is postponed, the MoU was signed digitally, and talks depend on implementation of specified terms. Simultaneously, Iran's Foreign Ministry stated shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is continuing and armed forces have taken measures to ensure safe passage, directly contradicting earlier reports of a re-closure. This is a de-escalation signal for oil markets. Additionally, a new ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has been agreed, mediated by Qatar, the US, and Iran, set to go into effect Friday, per multiple sources including a US official and NewsNation. This ceasefire counters the prevailing bearish thesis of escalating regional conflict and could reopen diplomatic channels. Separately, Meta's AI overhaul is stumbling, with CTO Bosworth calling the reorg 'atrocious' and its Muse Spark model slipping, a negative signal for META. IBM dropped 6.9% after Accenture's weak outlook and its own AI study raised concerns about enterprise AI spending. China is scrutinizing indium exports, key for AI chips, which could pressure chipmakers. UK political turmoil escalates as multiple cabinet ministers reportedly tell Starmer to set a departure timeline. Ukraine launched its largest drone assault on Moscow (555 drones), hitting the Kapotnya oil refinery, escalating energy supply risks. Goldman Sachs cut its gold target to $4,900, citing delayed Fed cuts and market expectations for rate hikes.