WS #10200

The US-Iran deal is rapidly unraveling, with multiple sources confirming that Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz and suspended negotiations with the US following Israeli strikes on Lebanon. This directly counters the previous narrative of a reopening and oil price decline. Al Jazeera and NYT report that Israeli attacks on Lebanon continue despite a ceasefire, with 47 killed. France's Macron announced he will not allow Trump to remove sanctions on Iran, further undermining the deal. Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes have shut down the Moscow oil refinery indefinitely, adding a new supply-side risk. Traders have fully priced a 25bp Fed rate hike by September due to oil-driven inflation concerns. The SpaceX IPO triggered a historic land grab in leveraged ETFs with over $10 billion in volume. Berkshire Hathaway's pivot to housing/tech raises concentration risk, with a 15% decline noted. Adobe hit an 8-year low, down 72% from highs. A Bain Capital CLO failed to repay investors, the first such default since the ABS overhaul. The UK political scene sees pressure on PM Starmer to set a departure timetable after Burnham's win in Makerfield.