WS #10204

The dominant narrative in this window is the collapse of the US-Iran interim peace deal, with multiple sources reporting that Iran has re-closed the Strait of Hormuz. This is corroborated by IRGC announcements, social media posts, and Polymarket trades on Iran-related outcomes. The closure escalates the Middle East crisis, reversing the relief rally seen earlier in the week. Separately, a diplomatic row between the US and Italy has escalated, with Italy's foreign minister canceling a US trip after Trump's fabricated claims about Meloni. This adds to transatlantic tensions. On the corporate front, a report suggests the US suspects ASML may have illegally supplied EUV chip-making equipment to China, which could impact semiconductor supply chains. Additionally, a new ProShares 'FAB 10' ETF filing includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX alongside Nvidia, signaling continued AI investment enthusiasm. The UK political landscape sees Andy Burnham's landslide by-election victory, potentially destabilizing Starmer's leadership. European markets closed lower, with European gas prices rising sharply.