WS #10209

The dominant narrative in this window is the escalating crisis around the Strait of Hormuz and the unraveling of the US-Iran peace deal. Multiple sources corroborate that Iran has re-closed the Strait despite the recent agreement, with reports of ships requiring Iranian permission and mandatory insurance. This is a significant escalation from the previous stable narrative. Additionally, Ukrainian drone strikes on a Moscow oil refinery have halted operations, adding upward pressure on oil prices. The Iraqi Oil Ministry's statement that southern fields could return to 3 million bpd within 1-2 months acts as a counter-signal, potentially dampening some of the bullish oil sentiment. In UK politics, Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure to resign after a by-election defeat, with multiple cabinet ministers calling for his departure, which could introduce political uncertainty. On the macro front, the US dollar is surging on Fed rate hike expectations, and gold/silver prices are plunging on the peace deal and Fed stance. A notable MAG7 carve-out: Intel (INTC) is up 263% YTD, contradicting any broad tech selloff narrative. Key developments include: Iran re-closing the Strait of Hormuz despite the peace deal, confirmed by multiple sources; Ukrainian drone strikes halting operations at the Moscow oil refinery; Iraqi Oil Ministry signaling potential output recovery of 3 million bpd within 1-2 months, countering oil supply fears; UK PM Keir Starmer considering resignation after cabinet pressure; and US intelligence warning that Netanyahu may undermine the Iran peace deal. Intel's 263% YTD gain stands out as a MAG7 carve-out against any tech weakness narrative.