WS #10227

The dominant signal in this window is the Strait of Hormuz closure, reported by a Bluesky post citing Brent crude at $92/barrel, corroborated by multiple Polymarket questions on Hormuz traffic normalization and Iran enrichment deadlines. This is an escalation of the prior Iran crisis narrative. Additionally, China has tightened export controls on indium, a critical metal for AI/optical chips, with approval times extending from one day to several days, threatening supply chains for data center infrastructure. Ukraine drone strikes on Moscow refinery and Rostov oil depots continue, while a UK train crash near Bedford is a tragic but non-market-moving event. The US-Iran deal remains fragile with Iran's deputy FM signaling readiness to move forward, but the Hormuz closure counters any bullish thesis on energy prices easing. Poland approved a 60% windfall tax on oil companies, which could pressure European energy stocks. SpaceX stock (SPCX) plunged 20%+ from post-IPO high, erasing $620B, with dilution risks from the Cursor acquisition. No MAG7-specific contradictory signals emerged; the macro narrative of geopolitical risk and supply chain disruption is escalating.