WS #10259

The dominant market-moving signal in this window is the confirmed closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, reported by multiple sources including AP, Axios, Reuters, and the Tehran Times. This escalates the Iran-US tensions and directly threatens global oil supply, with crude oil prices expected to spike. The closure is attributed to Israeli attacks on Lebanon and US failure to uphold agreements. However, a counter-signal emerges: Iran's Foreign Ministry is sending a negotiating team to Switzerland, and VP Vance stated talks are 'going well,' suggesting a potential diplomatic off-ramp. This creates a volatile, two-way risk for energy markets. Separately, a SpaceX IPO is generating anticipation for AI-related IPOs, and Apple confirmed sourcing chips from Intel's foundry, a bullish signal for INTC. The Fed under Warsh held rates steady at 3.5-3.75%, with a hawkish tone on inflation, which is a headwind for growth stocks. The narrative is ESCALATING on the Strait of Hormuz closure but with a diplomatic counter-signal that could de-escalate.