WS #10262

The dominant signal in this window is the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, citing Israeli strikes on Lebanon and US violations of the MOU. This directly counters the prior narrative of de-escalation and threatens to reverse the oil price decline seen after the initial peace deal. The US military reports 55 merchant ships transited today and moved 17 million barrels of oil, indicating a partial flow, but the closure announcement creates significant uncertainty. Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure (Tyumen refinery) continue, adding upward pressure on energy prices. The Nasdaq-100 reshuffle is a notable structural shift, with AI infrastructure stocks replacing legacy tech, which could drive sector rotation. Spain's political scandal (PM's wife barred from leaving country) is a minor European risk but not directly US market-moving. The overall narrative is ESCALATING on the Strait of Hormuz risk, with the closure announcement representing a material new development that dampens the prior bullish thesis on oil supply normalization.