WS #10279

The dominant signal in this window is the re-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Al Jazeera reports that Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon that killed at least 83 people on Saturday, violating the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed this week. This is corroborated by multiple Bluesky posts (IDs 347882161, 347877799, 347876324) and a Polymarket trade on US-Iran diplomatic meetings. The narrative is ESCALATING: the previous stalemate has broken with Iran re-closing the strait. This directly impacts oil prices (bullish for energy, bearish for airlines/consumer) and geopolitical risk. Separately, a Nobel laureate (John Jumper) is leaving DeepMind for Anthropic, a high-signal talent move in AI. Russia imposes fuel rationing in Moscow after Ukrainian drone attacks on oil infrastructure, and Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was reconnected to the grid after a 4.5-hour outage. These are secondary signals. The bulk of the data is sports betting noise (Polymarket trades on Netherlands vs. Sweden, etc.) and routine news (Edinburgh stabbings, local interest stories) which are not market-moving.