WS #10300

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating UK political crisis, with multiple sources reporting that Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to resign on Monday. This is corroborated by Polymarket trades showing heavy activity on 'next PM' markets, indicating heightened uncertainty. The narrative is ESCALATING from the previous window's 'UK political uncertainty' to a concrete resignation timeline. Separately, the US-Iran nuclear talks are advancing: VP Vance is departing for Switzerland and the Iranian delegation has arrived, suggesting a potential breakthrough that could de-escalate Middle East tensions and impact oil markets. This counters the previous bearish oil thesis from Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The Fed inflation narrative remains stable with no new data, and the Ukraine drone/oil refinery strikes continue but without fresh market-moving details. The Israel-Hezbollah truce headline from oilprice.com provides a counter-signal to oil supply fears, though it is a single source. Overall, the UK political turmoil is the highest-signal development, with Iran talks as a secondary positive catalyst for risk assets.