WS #10307

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis. Multiple sources (BBC, Al Jazeera, Bluesky) corroborate that Iran has closed the strait again, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon as a breach of the ceasefire MOU. Trump's Truth Social post vowing no tolls unless imposed by the US adds ambiguity, while US Central Command denies the closure. A Bluesky post reports Iran now says the strait stays closed even if the US fulfills all MOU commitments, indicating a hardening stance. This is a high-significance development with direct implications for oil prices and energy stocks. Separately, VP Vance is traveling to Switzerland for nuclear talks with Iran, which could be a counter-signal if progress is made. The narrative arc is ESCALATING: Iran has acted on its threat, and Trump's response is unclear, increasing the risk of a prolonged supply disruption. A lower-significance item is the Secret Network bridge exploit for $4.67M, which is crypto-specific and unlikely to move broad markets.