WS #10313

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz closure narrative, now corroborated by multiple sources. Iran's military command has officially declared the Strait closed, citing Israeli attacks in Lebanon. This is a significant escalation from the previous window where the narrative was contested. The closure is confirmed by multiple independent sources (Bluesky posts, Substack, and a direct military statement), raising the significance to high. The UK political crisis is also intensifying, with multiple sources (CNBC, Bluesky, The Deep Dive) reporting that PM Keir Starmer is expected to resign on Monday. This is a new development with direct market implications for GBP and UK equities. The Ukraine-Russia conflict continues with drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, but this is a continuation of existing trends. The EU summit revealed deep divisions over Russia policy and the budget, which could weaken the bloc's influence. No MAG7 contradictory signals were detected; the macro narrative remains bearish due to geopolitical risks.