WS #10382

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran tensions, with Iran's delegation walking out of negotiations in Switzerland due to Trump's threats, demanding an apology. This is corroborated by a Bloomberg headline reporting oil climbs on renewed Iran threat and US futures slipping. The Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to underpin oil prices. Separately, Polymarket projects Trump-backed candidate Abelardo de la Espriella has won the Colombian presidential election with 99% probability, which could have implications for US-Colombia relations and energy policy. Ukrainian drone strikes have disabled Russian refining capacity, removing an estimated 600,000 bpd, adding to global oil supply tightness. UK Prime Minister Starmer will address the nation tomorrow, suggesting a significant domestic political development. US stock futures are lower (-0.4% S&P, -0.6% Nasdaq) ahead of key PCE inflation data later this week, with rate hike expectations pulled forward to October. The prevailing macro narrative is risk-off due to geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed expectations, with oil and gold climbing.