WS #10405

The dominant signal in this window is the continued de-escalation of the US-Iran crisis, now corroborated by multiple sources. The 60-day peace roadmap is being implemented: Iran has ramped up crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to the highest since the war started, and sellers of Iranian crude to China have slashed prices. This has sent oil futures negative and Brent crude below $80, with Goldman Sachs cutting its Brent forecast. However, counter-signals persist: a Qatar LNG plant blast injured dozens, Iran suspended nuclear talks, and Ukraine drone strikes continue to hit Russian oil infrastructure. Separately, the UK political crisis is escalating: CNBC reports Starmer expected to outline his departure plan today, with Polymarket showing active trading on 'Starmer out' markets. Japan's Nikkei closed at an all-time high, and a peer-beating tech fund doubled China exposure. Germany plans to buy 40% of KNDS before its IPO, a major defense sector signal. The narrative arc is: US-Iran de-escalation is STABLE (with counter-signals), UK political crisis is ESCALATING, Japan equities are BULLISH, and defense sector is BULLISH (KNDS IPO).