WS #10411

The dominant signal in this window is the resignation of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, confirmed by multiple major news outlets (BBC, Al Jazeera, Seeking Alpha) and corroborated by social media posts and Polymarket trades. This introduces political uncertainty in the UK, with GBP under pressure and USD gaining safe-haven demand. The frontrunner to replace Starmer is Andy Burnham, who has announced his candidacy and received endorsements from key figures like Wes Streeting, with a leadership contest timeline that could see a new PM by July 17. Separately, US-Iran talks are reported to have made encouraging progress, which could de-escalate tensions in the Middle East and potentially impact oil prices. A missile strike on a sanctioned Russian semiconductor plant in Voronezh and continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow airports add to geopolitical noise but are not new escalations. In corporate news, Comstock (LODE) announced the sale of its mining assets to Mackay Gold & Silver for over $45M, a significant transaction for the company. Bitcoin ETFs saw $227M in net outflows last week, extending the negative flow streak to six consecutive weeks. The UK political crisis is the most actionable development for FX markets, while the US-Iran talks and Comstock deal are significant for energy and mining sectors respectively.