WS #10426

The dominant signal in this window is the rapid de-escalation of the Iran conflict, with multiple corroborating sources confirming a 60-day pause on Iranian oil sanctions, a roadmap to a final deal within 60 days, and Iran agreeing to allow nuclear inspectors back. This is a major counter-signal to the prevailing oil supply crisis thesis. US oil prices have already fallen below $74/barrel on the news, and Gulf oil flows through Hormuz are at the fastest pace since the war began. Separately, UK PM Keir Starmer has resigned, triggering a leadership contest likely to produce Andy Burnham as next PM. On the corporate front, AbbVie's $10.9B acquisition of Apogee Therapeutics signals consolidation in biotech, while Micron's partnership with Anthropic and Dell's early Vera Rubin system shipments point to continued AI infrastructure buildout. Apple was downgraded to Hold by KGI Securities with a $315 target, a bearish signal for the MAG7. The ECB's Lagarde stated no need for more forceful reaction to Middle East fallout, which is dovish for European rates.