WS #10448

The dominant theme in this window is the ongoing U.S.-Iran de-escalation, with multiple sources confirming the US has lifted all oil sanctions on Iran for 60 days and that the Strait of Hormuz reopening has been agreed upon, though traffic remains at just 3% of normal. This is a significant counter-signal to the prevailing oil supply crisis narrative, as it opens a window for Iranian oil exports and could pressure crude prices lower. However, the actual impact is tempered by the fact that Hormuz traffic remains severely disrupted, and the MOU may not prevent an energy cliff. Separately, a federal judge in Washington D.C. blocked DHS from using its citizenship database to purge voters, and another judge quashed DOJ subpoenas against Minnesota officials, both representing legal setbacks for the Trump administration but with limited direct market impact. The Montreal police shooting is a tragic local event with no market implications. The Starmer resignation is stale news carried forward from the previous window with no new data. The Greenspan death tributes continue but are also stale. The CRH acquisition of Arcosa for $8.5B is a notable M&A deal in construction materials. The ECB's Lagarde urging talks on yuan undervaluation is a macro signal that could pressure Chinese FX and trade-sensitive sectors. The Japan household asset push to 40% is a long-term structural story. Overall, the Iran sanctions easing is the highest-signal development, acting as a counter to the oil supply crisis, while the Hormuz traffic data shows the situation is still far from normal.