WS #10509

The dominant narrative is a severe global tech selloff, driven by a South Korea-led semiconductor rout and risk-off sentiment ahead of Micron (MU) earnings. The KOSPI plunged 10%, dragging down memory stocks like Sandisk (WDC) and SK Hynix, with Nasdaq-100 futures down 2.7%. However, several counter-signals and selective bullish developments emerge: (1) US-Iran talks show progress—the US waived sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days and established a Strait of Hormuz communication line, with Trump claiming a record 19 million barrels passed through the strait, directly countering the oil supply crisis narrative; (2) Evercore's Emanuel argues earnings will rescue tech from the selloff, and JPMorgan upgraded IBM on software acceleration; (3) Carnival (CCL) reported FQ2 results with 3.4M passengers and 104% occupancy, raising FY2026 guidance slightly; (4) Meta announced $299 smart glasses, a lower price point that could boost consumer adoption; (5) Energy Fuels (UUUU) announced a $1.9B deal to buy German magnet maker VAC, signaling rare earths supply chain reshoring. The Strait of Hormuz traffic rebound to 20% of pre-war levels and the US-Iran MoU implementation are de-escalating the oil crisis, which counters the prevailing bearish energy thesis. The tech selloff is the dominant theme but is showing signs of stabilization with selective analyst upgrades and the MU options flow suggesting institutional bullish positioning.