WS #10512

The dominant narrative remains a broad risk-off move driven by a tech selloff, with the Nasdaq down over 2% and gold/silver tumbling on rate-hike fears following Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed meeting. However, several counter-signals and specific developments emerge. The US-Iran peace deal is progressing, with Trump saying the US will control Iran's use of unfrozen funds and the US letting Iran sell oil again, which is weighing on oil prices (WTI -0.78). US PMI data for June beat expectations (Manufacturing 55.7 vs 54.8 est, Services 51.3 vs 51.0 est), suggesting the economy remains resilient. In corporate news, Carnival forecast Q3 profit below estimates on higher fuel costs, dragging cruise stocks. Backblaze shares rose 30% on a $335M deal with CoreWeave. The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Exxon Mobil in a Cuban assets case and in favor of Cisco Systems in a Falun Gong lawsuit. The European Commission hosted Taliban representatives for the first time. Ukraine executed a large drone offensive striking the Gazprom Neft Moscow Oil Refinery, and Russia is discussing fuel imports due to refinery strikes. The narrative is one of tech-led risk aversion with pockets of strength in energy, defense, and select industrials, while the Iran deal and strong PMI provide some offset.