WS #10518

The dominant narrative in this window is the rapid de-escalation of the Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is driving a sharp decline in oil prices and reshaping global trade flows. BBC and Kpler data confirm at least 172 vessels have crossed the strait since the US-Iran deal, with Brent crude dropping to its lowest level since the war began. The US Treasury has issued a 60-day sanctions waiver allowing Iranian oil sales in dollars, and Iran and Oman are discussing future administration of the strait. This is a major counter-signal to the previous oil supply crisis narrative. Separately, Russia's gasoline crunch is worsening, with two-thirds of regions facing fuel rationing due to drone attacks on refineries, keeping upward pressure on energy stocks. In tech, a massive $8M call premium flowed into META for September 570 calls, signaling bullish conviction despite the broader tech selloff. The Ethereum Foundation announced a 40% budget cut and 20% headcount reduction, a bearish signal for ETH and crypto sentiment. Deutsche Bank published a note attributing Bitcoin's drop below $60k to Fed hawkishness, ETF outflows, and rotation into AI, reinforcing the institutional maturation thesis. The Supreme Court ruled on several cases, including allowing ExxonMobil's lawsuit over Cuban property, which is a positive for XOM. Overall, the macro theme is shifting from war-driven oil spike to post-deal normalization, with oil prices falling and energy stocks facing headwinds, while tech remains bifurcated between AI optimism and macro pressure.