WS #10524

The dominant narrative remains the de-escalation of the Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices declining. However, a massive tech selloff has emerged as the key market-moving event in this window. Semiconductor and chip stocks are plunging sharply, with NVDA down 3.7%, AMD down 7.5%, MU down 11.7%, and SOXX down 6.9%. This appears to be broad profit-taking rather than a single catalyst, though Micron's earnings due Wednesday are adding to uncertainty. The selloff is dragging down the broader market, with the Nasdaq falling 500 points (1.91%) and the S&P 500 down 1.27%. Countering the bearish tech narrative, US economic data showed strength: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI surged to 55.7 (est. 54.6) and Services PMI rose to 51.3. Additionally, Russia is considering a diesel-export ban following Ukraine refinery attacks, which could support oil prices and energy stocks. The Iran peace deal continues to ease oil supply fears, with tankers becoming more overt in transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Toyota is cutting production abroad by 100,000 vehicles due to weak demand from the Iran war, highlighting ongoing economic drag from the conflict despite the ceasefire. The ECB's Vujcic signaled inflation will remain higher for longer, supporting a hawkish central bank stance. On the geopolitical front, Rubio stated that no country can charge tolls on international waterways, reinforcing the reopening of the Strait. Pakistan's PM discussed the ceasefire with Iranian leadership. A massive healthcare fraud bust by the DOJ charged 455 people in a $6.5 billion scheme, but this is unlikely to move markets directly. The tech selloff is the primary signal, with the macro narrative shifting from oil-driven to tech-driven volatility.