WS #10544

The dominant narrative remains the intensifying tech selloff, with the Nasdaq down ~3.2% (QQQ 3rd-worst day in 14 months) driven by AI bubble fears. NPR and Seeking Alpha both highlight the AI spending ROI debate, with Micron (MU) implied earnings move of 12.1% and shares down 12%. However, a significant counter-signal emerges: the U.S. Senate voted to halt an Iran war unless Congress approves, which could de-escalate geopolitical risk and dampen the oil/defense thesis. Additionally, Commerce Secretary Lutnick signaled possible action on Chinese robots, adding a trade-war dimension. SpaceX reportedly drew huge demand for its first bond sale (raising at least $25B), indicating strong credit appetite. The AI selloff is the primary signal, but the Iran de-escalation and trade policy signals provide cross-currents. Key developments include: (1) Senate passes Iran war powers resolution, a direct rebuke to Trump, potentially capping oil upside and dampening defense stocks; (2) FedEx reports strong Q4 results, a positive signal for the economy and logistics; (3) SpaceX's $25B bond debut shows robust credit demand; (4) Lutnick signals possible action on Chinese robots, threatening tech supply chains; (5) TSLA selloff deepens on NHTSA crash probe, despite a $5B Megapack deal. The tech selloff is the primary signal, but the Iran de-escalation and trade policy signals provide cross-currents.