WS #10596

The dominant signal in this window is the sharp sell-off in oil prices, driven by progress in US-Iran peace talks that is allowing tankers to resume crossing the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude is down ~4.4% to ~$70, and Brent is below $74. This is corroborated by multiple sources: oilprice.com data, a Bloomberg report on the bearish flip in the oil market structure, and a Seeking Alpha article linking the drop to the US-Iran deal. The oil decline is weighing on energy stocks (XOM, CVX) while benefiting airlines and consumer discretionary names. Separately, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has fallen below $100 for the first time since February 2024, driven by the broader crypto sell-off and bitcoin's decline toward $61,000. Bitcoin is under pressure from a hawkish Fed and a strengthening dollar, with 10x Research calling for a potential drop to $55,000. On the tech side, markets are stabilizing after a two-day rout, with the Nasdaq up over 100 points ahead of Micron (MU) earnings after the close. JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,800, adding to the bullish chorus. In a notable MAG7 carve-out, RBC estimates Tesla (TSLA) Q2 deliveries at 405k, above consensus of 401k, reiterating an Outperform rating. The Senate passed an Iran War Powers Resolution 50-48, but Trump claims Iran agreed to IAEA inspections, though Tehran says damaged sites remain closed—this geopolitical uncertainty is a secondary factor in oil's volatility.