WS #10614

The dominant theme in this window is the continued normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic, with U.S. Energy Sec. Wright reporting 72 ships and 20 million barrels transited in the last 24 hours. This de-escalation signal is corroborated by Polymarket contracts on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal and by a separate report that Iraq's Kurdistan region has seen foreign oil firms resume operations. The counter-supply risk from the Strait is materially diminishing, which is bearish for oil prices and bullish for airlines and consumer discretionary stocks. However, the broader market is under pressure: SPY is down 1% since 11:30am ET with broad selling, Bitcoin has dipped below $60k, and gold/silver are at fresh 2026 lows. The macro narrative is one of risk-off sentiment driven by a strong dollar and tight monetary policy expectations, partially offset by the oil de-escalation. In tech, Broadcom's new OpenAI co-designed 'Jalapeno' chip is a positive catalyst for AVGO, while Google's app store billing changes and its upcoming Dow Jones inclusion (replacing VZ) are notable for GOOGL. A federal judge permanently blocked Trump's proof-of-citizenship voting requirement, a political development with limited direct market impact. The Bank of Canada rejected a recession label, a minor positive for Canadian exposure. Overall, the oil de-escalation is the most actionable signal, but it is being overshadowed by broader macro risk-off.