WS #10623

The dominant signal in this window is the continued de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with U.S. Energy Secretary Wright reporting 72 ships carrying ~20 million barrels of oil passed through in the past 24 hours, reinforcing that the strait is effectively open. This is a major counter-signal to the previous oil supply crisis narrative, and oil prices are reflecting this: WTI down ~4% to $70.21 and Brent down ~4.6% to $73.52. The ECB's Zigman noted that falling oil prices ease inflation pressure, supporting a less hawkish central bank stance. Separately, Qualcomm announced its Dragonfly C1000 data center CPU with Meta as its first customer, a significant development for the AI infrastructure trade, though QCOM shares were down on the day. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 to its lowest since October 2024, with BTC at $59,548, pressured by macro headwinds and capital rotation out of crypto. Meta is reportedly planning an AI-powered prediction market app, which could disrupt Kalshi and Polymarket. Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro model release has been delayed to July, adding to negative Google headlines. The Kalshi fundraising at a $40B valuation is a notable signal for the prediction market space. The overall market narrative is one of oil-driven disinflation helping equities, but tech and crypto remain under pressure.