WS #12464

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with Iran's president declaring a 'full-scale war' with the US and fresh airstrikes following the deaths of three US service members. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to LNG traffic, with zero LNG tankers transiting in the past three days, and Polymarket markets show elevated probability of further escalation. This is a clear ESCALATION of the dominant geopolitical risk theme. Separately, the UK political transition is complete with Andy Burnham officially becoming Prime Minister, expected to fast-track North Sea oil and gas exploration. In corporate news, IREN signed $2.8bn in new AI cloud contracts with leading developers including Microsoft and NVIDIA, raising its year-end ARR target to over $4bn. AMC Entertainment reported a massive Q2 beat with EPS of $0.14 versus estimates of -$0.06, driven by record revenue from 'The Odyssey' opening weekend. Domino's Pizza beat low expectations with shares up 7% premarket despite weak US same-store sales. The EU fined AliExpress a record €550M for DSA violations. China-Philippines tensions are rising with coast guard confrontations in the South China Sea.