WS #12474

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with a ninth consecutive US strike on Iran pushing Brent above $90 and a tanker struck in the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis threaten a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further tightening oil supply. However, a potential de-escalation signal emerges: Israel's Netanyahu convenes a security meeting to approve withdrawal positions in southern Lebanon under a US-mediated framework, and Polymarket shows active trading on 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31' and 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22'. This counters the prevailing escalation narrative. Separately, the AI infrastructure theme strengthens: Hut 8 fully commercializes a 1 GW Texas AI campus with a second $9.8B lease, and IREN signs $2.8B in contracts, sending shares surging. Alphabet (GOOGL) pops 3% on reports of a new efficient AI chip 'Frozen v2', a bullish signal ahead of earnings. The US leading index slipped more than expected (-0.2% vs -0.1% est.), a mild negative for the macro outlook. UK PM Andy Burnham assumes office and speaks with Trump, but this has limited direct US market impact. The India 'Cockroach' protests and Colombia transfer-of-power tensions are notable but lack direct US market channels.