WS #12509

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran conflict, with the US launching a 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran and the Houthis declaring a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, threatening the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This adds a new front to the war, potentially reducing global oil supply by 7% on top of the existing 10% reduction from Hormuz disruptions. Oil prices rose briefly but fell back on hopes of diplomacy, though the risk of sustained high oil prices remains. Separately, Trump imposed an additional 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods, effective August 19, escalating trade tensions. On the corporate side, a federal judge temporarily blocked the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger, and Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% passive stake in Nebius Group. The narrative is ESCALATING on the geopolitical front, with the Houthi blockade representing a significant new development that could further pressure energy markets and shipping costs.