WS #12518

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant market driver, with hostilities escalating further. President Trump vowed revenge for the killing of US service members, and the US launched a 10th straight night of strikes on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping traffic in the Strait has fallen 72% in two weeks, per Kpler. Oil prices held near one-month highs (Brent $89.22, WTI $83.23) as the Houthis threatened a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia. However, a senior Iranian official indicated mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire to revive the interim deal, offering a potential de-escalation counter-signal. Separately, Trump signed proclamations imposing 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods (excluding energy, potash, fish, critical minerals), effective in 30 days, escalating trade tensions. In corporate news, SK Hynix announced a 43 trillion won ADR listing, a major capital raise. Magnolia Oil & Gas launched a $1B public stock offering, sending shares lower. Insider selling at MARA Holdings ($575K in 7 days) signals bearishness. A federal judge ordered a two-week halt to the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger. New Zealand inflation accelerated to 4.1% (vs 3.1% prior) on soaring fuel costs, reinforcing global inflation concerns. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING on the geopolitical front, with a potential de-escalation counter-signal emerging.