WS #12534

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with active missile attacks and interceptions. Iran's IRGC claims to have destroyed Amazon (AWS) data infrastructure in Bahrain with cruise missiles, a direct attack on civilian tech infrastructure that could impact Amazon's cloud operations. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Headline Dispatch, and OSINT reports) confirm oil tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with the US conducting a 10th consecutive night of strikes. Goldman Sachs warns oil could surpass $120/barrel if Strait disruptions persist. However, mediators are pushing a 10-day ceasefire proposal, and Polymarket shows a market for 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25' with active trading, suggesting some de-escalation hope. Separately, TSMC plans to raise chip manufacturing prices by up to 10% in 2027, which is bullish for TSMC and could impact AI/hyperscaler margins. Oracle may face a $7B collateral bill for its Wisconsin data centre, a negative for ORCL. The ZEW German economic sentiment index surged to 26.3 (vs 10.5 prior, beating 17.5 estimate), indicating European economic improvement despite Iran uncertainty. China's stock market rebounded sharply (CSI 300 +3.1%, Star 50 +11%) on state buying support, a positive for Chinese tech exposure. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING in the Middle East but with a potential de-escalation signal (ceasefire talks).