WS #12538

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING with the IEA warning that Mideast hostilities are increasing oil supply concerns, and Trump vowing revenge on Iran. However, there are active diplomatic signals: Lebanon's President Aoun is meeting Trump, and the Lebanese army is deploying in a 'pilot zone' after an Israeli withdrawal, as reported by BBC and Al Jazeera. This is a de-escalatory step in the Israel-Hezbollah theater, but the broader US-Iran tension persists. Separately, a major crypto regulatory development: reports that Trump agreed to a key ethics provision for the US Clarity Act, clearing the way for Senate passage, which sent Bitcoin above $66,000 and rallied the broader crypto market. This is a high-significance positive for crypto-related equities. On the earnings front, a wave of Q2 beats: General Motors (GM) raised full-year guidance, 3M (MMM) beat and raised sales outlook, Hasbro (HAS) beat and raised guidance, Halliburton (HAL) beat, D.R. Horton (DHI) beat but guidance below estimates, Marsh & McLennan (MMM) beat, Valmont (VMI) beat and raised guidance, Vicor (VICR) beat, Mueller Industries (MLI) beat. However, Danaher (DHR) slipped 10% despite a beat and raise, and Northrop Grumman (NOC) missed EPS but raised guidance on record awards. Morgan Stanley downgraded Adobe (ADBE) to underweight, citing AI competition. The carry-forward from previous situational awareness includes the TSMC price hike (bullish for TSM, bearish for hyperscalers) and the Oracle collateral bill (bearish for ORCL), both unrefuted. The Tether three-way crypto deal falling apart and Mallers stepping down is a negative for crypto sentiment, but the Clarity Act progress offsets this.