WS #12540

The US-Iran conflict continues to ESCALATE with the 10th consecutive night of US strikes, a Kuwaiti tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz, and reports of damage to US barracks at Tower-22 base in Jordan. Brent crude is up 5.2% in 24 hours. The IEA is closely monitoring oil markets, and Kazakhstan is halting pipeline shipments to the Black Sea after tanker attacks. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted a substantial decrease in Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, but also said the US is creating competitors in AI. On the trade front, Trump's 50% tariffs on Canada are being framed as 'reciprocity' by Bessent. In earnings, 3M (MMM) raised guidance and shares rose 5.8% premarket, Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat but fell on higher expenses, Northrop Grumman (NOC) beat but shares fell 3.6%, and GM (GM) reported first revenue growth in over a year. Novo Nordisk (NVO) is suing Eli Lilly (LLY) over misleading GLP-1 ads. Morgan Stanley downgraded several tech names including Workday (WDAY), Vertex (VERX), and Wix (WIX), while Rothschild raised Meta (META) price target to $1000. The Clarity Act odds jumped 11 points on Polymarket after reports Trump agreed to an ethics provision, boosting crypto sentiment. The dominant narrative remains the escalating Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, with some counter-signals from IEA monitoring and Bessent's comments on Iranian oil purchases.