WS #12555

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, with several new developments in the last 30 minutes. The situation is ESCALATING: Houthi naval blockade against Saudi Arabia is now explicitly condemned by Riyadh, and Trump has made multiple statements on the blockade and Iran, including that Iran 'wants to desperately meet' and that he will 'take care of business' if needed. Oil prices are jumping on fresh US-Iran strikes and Houthi warnings against ships calling at Saudi ports. The Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption continues, with Polymarket contracts showing active trading on 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal' and 'Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations.' A key counter-signal emerged: Israel's Finance Minister Smotrich stated Israel has 'no interest' in joining the US war on Iran, which could dampen fears of a broader regional conflict. Separately, Apple announced a device leasing program with Klarna to spur sales, a bullish signal for AAPL. Google launched three new Gemini AI models, and Nvidia's Vera CPU is now shipping to clients, both positive for the tech sector. The Clarity Act crypto legislation continues to see activity, with Polymarket contracts on its passage. Bitcoin ETFs saw $227M in net inflows, a fifth straight day of inflows, supporting crypto. The RBA rate hike probability has doubled due to oil-driven fuel prices, a macro headwind for Australia but not directly US-relevant.