WS #12559

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources corroborate that President Trump has rejected a ceasefire, threatened 'devastating blows,' and specifically threatened heavy military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites at 'Pickaxe Mountain.' This escalation is directly impacting oil markets, with Brent crude above $91 and WTI near $84.50, as Houthi blockades force ships to turn around, affecting 7% of global oil supply. The situation is further inflamed by Trump's statement that Iran is 'probably' trying to impact US midterm elections by closing the Strait of Hormuz. However, a potential counter-signal exists: Trump met with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, suggesting diplomatic channels remain open. Separately, a major MAG7-specific development emerged: Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake in Nebius Group (NBIS), worth approximately $4B, sending NBIS shares up over 13% and signaling strong AI infrastructure demand. This is a bullish signal for the AI trade and neocloud stocks, contradicting any macro bearishness on tech. Additionally, the US announced new 50% tariffs on Canadian products, escalating trade tensions, and Canada's PM Carney said Trump agreed to 'intensify negotiations.' The Oaktree warning of a $200B distressed moment as rates stay high adds a macro undercurrent. Overall, the market is processing a complex mix of geopolitical escalation, trade war risks, and a powerful AI-specific catalyst from Nvidia's investment.