WS #12564

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with new developments: Iran claims to have destroyed Amazon's main data center in Bahrain and attacked Kuwaiti infrastructure, while the US launched its 10th night of strikes. Houthi forces declared a naval blockade in the Red Sea, causing Saudi crude tankers to reverse course. Oil prices surged, with Brent above $91 and WTI near $84.40, up over 2%. However, a potential counter-signal emerges: Polymarket shows a 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24' market, and there are reports of ceasefire talks. Separately, Trump slapped a 50% tariff on Canadian goods, and the US Treasury Secretary threatened sanctions on Chinese AI models. On the corporate front, TSMC plans to raise chip prices by up to 10% in 2027, and Google launched three new Gemini AI models. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING on the geopolitical front, with oil supply disruptions worsening, but the ceasefire talks provide a potential de-escalation path.