WS #12566

The US-Iran conflict is escalating sharply with multiple new developments in the last 30 minutes. Trump has vowed to continue attacks on Iran, specifically threatening to bomb Iran's 'Pickaxe Mountain' centrifuge site 'very heavily' and 'pretty soon.' The US has launched its 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Simultaneously, Houthi forces have declared a naval blockade in the Red Sea, causing Saudi crude tankers to reverse course, and a Kuwaiti tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged above $90 per barrel (Brent at $91.02, WTI at $84.42), with prediction markets now seeing a 51% chance of US oil topping $90 this month. The Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea chokepoints are under mounting pressure, threatening oil supply. On the diplomatic front, Lebanese President Aoun said his meeting with a US senior adviser 'went very well,' but Trump offered no timeline for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. The Iran ceasefire narrative is de-escalating as military actions intensify. Separately, Apple is reportedly launching a new leasing program 'Apple Upgrade' on July 28, partnering with Klarna, which could boost iPhone/Mac demand. Google released three new Gemini models (3.6 Flash, 3.5 Flash-Lite, 3.5 Flash Cyber) but not the anticipated 3.5 Pro, causing a 1% dip in GOOGL stock. OpenAI's agentic usage has doubled in three weeks, signaling strong AI demand. The Clarity Act for crypto is at the '1-yard line' per Bessent, with Senator Cramer pushing for passage before August recess, boosting crypto stocks. Anthropic's $1.5B book piracy settlement was approved by a judge. S&P Dow Jones and Pantera Capital launched a new digital asset index. The US imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods, escalating trade tensions. UK PM Burnham's first cabinet meeting focused on cost of living, including a VAT cut on energy bills. Overall, the dominant theme is geopolitical escalation (US-Iran-Houthi) with oil price surge, while tech and crypto have positive catalysts.