WS #12580

The dominant signal in this window is Super Micro Computer's (SMCI) preliminary Q4 update, which triggered a 15-20% after-hours surge. The company guided gross margins to 15-17%, well above the prior 8.2-8.4% range, and reported over $60 billion in new orders, signaling robust AI server demand. This is corroborated by multiple sources (CNBC, Seeking Alpha, social media) and has sympathy moves in Dell (+5% AH) and HPE (+4% AH). The SMCI update reinforces the AI infrastructure buildout theme and is bullish for the AI supply chain (NVDA, MU, DELL, HPE). Separately, MSCI announced it will apply interim issuer capping of 25% on the MSCI USA Enhanced Value Index to address concentration, which could impact index flows. On the geopolitical front, Iran's military threatened to target US and allied interests if US attacks nuclear sites, and there are reports of Iranian strikes on Kuwaiti radars and an Amazon data center in Bahrain, though the latter is unconfirmed. The US-Canada trade war escalates with Trump imposing 50% tariffs on Canadian imports, but Carney and Trump agreed to intensify negotiations, providing a slight de-escalation signal. Alaska Air (ALK) reported Q2 results that beat EPS estimates but missed on revenue and issued weak Q3 guidance (EPS $0.00-$1.00 vs $1.38 est.), sending shares lower. Weatherford International (WFRD) missed Q2 EPS estimates and guided Q3 sales below consensus. Overall, the SMCI news is the highest-signal item, with positive implications for AI-related tech names.