WS #12597

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with the 11th consecutive night of US airstrikes on Iran, hitting Tabriz, Behbahan, and other targets. CENTCOM confirmed the conclusion of the latest wave. The IRGC says its operation to punish the 'American aggressor' is ongoing. A third US service member death was confirmed. However, a significant counter-signal emerged: the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial transit, with CENTCOM facilitating ~900 vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil since May, dampening oil supply disruption fears. Separately, the US-Canada trade war escalated: Trump invoked Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act to impose 50% tariffs on ~$20B of Canadian goods, and Canada canceled the joint bridge-opening ceremony. On the positive side, Wall Street closed higher (Dow +0.74%, Nasdaq +1.29%, S&P 500 +0.89%) driven by semiconductor strength (AMD +8.11%, Micron +12.17%), and Bitcoin reclaimed $66K on a five-day ETF inflow streak. The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict (ESCALATING), but the Hormuz counter-signal and trade escalation are key developments.