WS #12602

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz transits still 90% below normal and analysts warning oil could hit $200/barrel. The US Energy Department stated the SPR can operate safely at 70 million barrels, well below minimum levels, signaling limited strategic reserve capacity to counter supply disruptions. This is a bearish counter-signal for energy supply stability. Separately, Trump slapped 50% tariffs on Canadian imports under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, escalating trade tensions and potentially impacting US-Canada trade flows. The KOSPI's violent rebound (+3.56% on July 21) is described as flow-driven, not fundamental, with over 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts receiving margin calls and 320k-360k forcibly liquidated. This suggests continued fragility in Korean markets. Seven major tech firms (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, xAI) committed to self-funding their own power generation through the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, which could reduce regulatory risk for AI infrastructure spending. Japan's 40-year bond sale saw strongest demand since March 2025, indicating continued demand for safe-haven assets. The Anthropic $1.5 billion book piracy settlement was approved, a legal development for AI training data practices. Ukraine drones destroyed a second Wildberries distribution center, hitting half of Russia's largest e-commerce firm's top 10 warehouses in a week, escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on Russian infrastructure.