WS #12607

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with the US expanding strikes to new Iranian provinces for an 11th consecutive night and air defense systems reactivated in Tehran. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bluesky, Al Jazeera, Guardian). The conflict is now costing the US $37.5 billion, with a $67 billion supplemental request from Hegseth. CMA CGM announced emergency fuel surcharges from August 1 due to Strait of Hormuz tensions, directly impacting shipping costs. Separately, UK June CPI fell to 2.6% (below 2.7% forecast), a positive surprise that may ease pressure on the Bank of England. Samsung is in talks to invest ~€1B in French AI startup Mistral, signaling continued AI investment. The UK inflation data is a counter-signal to the prevailing bearish macro narrative driven by the Iran conflict, as lower inflation could support consumer spending and reduce rate hike fears. The US-Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING.